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2020 was a challenging year. From an operations point of view, disruption of normal day-to-day operations due to the COVID19 pandemic demanded measures to adapt to new ways of doing things - including shifting to virtual platforms for collaboration.

CEWARN stayed the course in monitoring developments in the region and in sharing early warning analysis with decision-makers both in IGAD and in the Member States. CEWARN conveys its gratitude to its national, regional and international partners for the strong support that made it possible. Special thanks are in order to the European Union that provided financial support to CEWARN activities.

Below are some highlights of activities completed in 2020:

  • Outreach strategy completed: the outreach strategy is aimed at supporting the expansion of CEWARN’s stakeholder-base & strengthening engagement with decision makers.

 

  • € 3 million availed for conflict prevention initiatives: Through the Rapid Response Fund, CEWARN mobilized three million Euros ready for use by member states for early response initiatives for a period of two years. Funds were obtained from the Austrian Development Agency (ADA), the governments of Netherlands and Sweden as well as the European Union through

 

  • Assessment on efficacy of CEWARN early warning methodology completed and output shared : CEWARN commissioned a retroactive review of the efficacy of its CEWARN’s situation reports in predicting incidents that were recorded from 2003-2015. The assessment yielded evidence in support of the CEWARN Risk model's predictive ability  while identifying areas for improvement. Areas for improvement include gaps in infrastructure and human resource capacity at the national level as well as consistency in field reporting.

 

  • Conflict Profiling for Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan : CEWARN facilitated national conflict profiling and scenario building exercises for Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and South Sudan. The exercises brought together thematic experts in governance, Security, economy, social affairs and environment sectors that reflect the broad areas of focus of CEWARN’s conflict early warning work. The aim of these exercises is to identify emerging risks of violent conflict with a view to inform CEWARN’s early warning and response work.

 

  • GIS platform launched: CEWARN’s GIS Unit launched a platform that regularly avails maps that provide spatial analysis of conflicts in the region containing physical and human factors of conflicts - where applicable. CEWARN uses open source data from its incident reporter database and its situation room reports as well as other available data sources.

 

  • National experts refine CEWARN conflict early warning indicators : CEWARN convened sector experts from Member States to review and refine its conflict early warning indicators that are used to compile incident and situation reports along CEWARN’s five sectors of focus, namely: Security, Governance, Social Affairs, Economy and Environment. The delegates also provided their inputs on customization of current analytic products to better suit the needs of their respective institutions. 

For further details , please refer to the attached newsletter, CEWARN Reflections 2020.

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